alongside people set to be unveiled today in boston. our question for you is what would you design a robot to do for you? smokey writes certainly not trading, you see how that ends up. and travis writes, i need a robot to write witty social updates. that does it for us, let's get to headquarters and the "fast money" halftime. carl, thanks so much, welcome in to "halftime." here's where we stand, up and down day thus far on wall street. yeah, slightly in the red as we follow the major averages. dow down about 2 points, s&p and nasdaq also negative. here's what we're following on "halftime." does a $700 price target tag mean that the company should finally split its stock? and gold 2,400, why the qe infinity rally is just getting started for precious metals. but first, our top story, and that's the tug of war between the bulls and bears. are stocks setting up for a big

pullback? let's get some answers from the najarian brothers, mike murphy, and guy adami. how about it, pete, you've been bullish, apple keeps rolling, are stocks going to pull back? >> and obviously you mentioned apple. there's a lot of reasons we've had this push to 1,460. when you look at the options market right now, that's been the tell for us. and when you look at the volatility index, that's the implied volatile measure of the s&p 500. that's been coming back, as well. staying well below even that 15 level. and then when you go out on the curve, actually, yesterday we started to see some of that volatility coming out even further out. some of those future contracts out through october, as well. so do i think we're setting up for a pullback? we certainly could see a bit of a pullback, especially after the extended run we've had. but i'm seeing a market that does not want to seem to want to go down. seems there's put protection in place and if there's put protection, keeps the sellers from hitting those buttons.

i remain bullish. >> that's an interesting call from pete. and so what, the market was down yesterday, big deal, it's been down 13 of 14 mondays and we're, you know, as pete said, the market doesn't feel like it wants to go down. >> i agree with pete almost 100%. you look at what's going on with the market right now, you have a lot of positive news or you're getting more positive news. but the key to me, you don't have a lot of negatives out there. you have an ecb that took action to support the market. in the event you see rates picking up over in spain or italy. so i think that took the european risk off the table. now, here we heard from bernanke last week. so i think the next move or the next leg up into this market is going to be people setting themselves up for the first quarter of next year. so we get through this year, it's going to be fine because we have all of the central banks in place. but q-1 next year, i think you could see earnings starting to pick up, i think the market goes higher and we see $1,500 on the

s&p. >> i agree for different reasons. i think the fundamentals are sort of negative. i'm skewed on the camp that the world is not getting better, i think it actually would make arguments it's getting worse. but i'm also coming down on the fence that the market doesn't give you this long to sell the highs. and here we are floating around the highs. and i've said this for quite some time. we set it down at 1,400. dougie is the most bullish he's been, and i understand that, but i think at 1,400, the market moves it away to hurt the most people in the most provocative of ways. and again, i think that's probably a push towards 1,500. >> another bull out there who has been on the show. certainly voicing that opinion. where do we go from here, doc? >> well, same story, judge, as far as with volatility levels that pete cited right at the top being so low. and the pit right behind me, that's the vix pit here at the chicago board option exchange.

the december futures have broken through 20 on the vix. so even though we're down around 14 here, these are futures, scott, that were up around 22, 23 not long ago at all, and now they're breaking through 20 and just holding 19 levels here today. so there's plenty of cheap protection that people could apply if they wanted to stay long the market here and as i've said all along, if you throw on some alpha by having some ratio spreads in the market. the people that have been listening to that, scott, have profited mightily. i think you continue to hold that position. >> all right. let's bring in doug cass. he is our market fair today, he is getting even more negative on the market. in a tweet, and let's read that tweet. he said he started the day at the highest net short position of the year. he joins us now on the fast line. welcome back to "halftime." >> hey, judge, how are you? >> i'm good. you haven't gotten the majorirk calls right of late.

you're undeterred. you're nothing if not stubborn, right? >> to me last week was like a scene in mel brooks "baseballs," you have a couple of members of the federal reserve preparing for light speed. and then dark helmet and ben bernanke came in on thursday and said light speed is too slow. they had to go right to ludicrous speed, and i call qe ludicrous speed. i was wrong about the market, i was surprised that the prospects for more has resulted in another upleg. the market has gone almost 3% beyond where i thought it would start. i didn't expect pavlov's dogs to be barking so loud. i think the investment environment is growing more dangerous. the world's economy, the profit outlook are weakening just at a time where sentiment is expanding and so are valuations. that's a potentially toxic cocktail to me. >> why fight the fed, doug? why fight them now? >> because we have this global

monetary put that everyone that there's total unanimity will keep the market elevated. by the way, many of the same people said in may when the market was oh around 1110 on the s&p, it couldn't go up. a global monetary put is a shield that protects risk assets, particularly stocks, but it's only a protective put if more easing has an impact on the real economy by improving aggregate demand, which would be expressing more hirings, expanded capital spending, rising consumer spending, and improving housing market. i don't see that happening. in fact, i can see ludicrous speed qe becoming a net drag on the economy. >> hey, dougie, real quick, speaking of ludicrous speed, what about when you look at the hedge fund community, very few of them are able to catch this rally. not just to 1,400, but how about

the last 60 or 70 points in the s&p. you're kind of fighting against those folks that are not involved and now they've got to get some performance in the final few months of the year. >> well, let's see, there are three bodies of a major dominant bodies of investors. mutual fund investors, is that pete or john? >> it's pete. >> hey, the mutual fund investors have the lowest cash reserves in history, the retail investors show absolutely no signs, they have their own problems in terms of real disposable incomes. they show no signs of interest in domestic equity investments, and you have hedge funds. the fact is that hedge funds have incrementally in the last two or three months increased their net long exposure into stocks. >> but have they -- >> the smart people i've talked to are not going to change, pete, because of the pressure of performance. >> yeah -- >> they're concerned about things like the, you know, the flow of corporate profits. >> now, i understand what you're saying, but they have increased what they had as far as a long position, but is it enough?

is it enough for them to actually make up some of the gap, the room between what the s&p has done this year and what their performance has been this year? my answer would be no, and that would mean they'd need to chase even further, isn't that correct? >> my experience is that the larger hedge funds which dominate the hedge fund universe lee cooperman who is a bull and heavily invested, and some others by contrast who are not fully invested and are concerned have not changed the concerns, and because the market's going up, they have confidence in their investor base that their investor base will be patient and they won't follow stocks. will day traders follow the market? of course they will. >> i'd say, it mean, i think cooperman's position is a little more cautiously optimistic, perhaps, than a full-fledged bull. your target for the s&p, doug, where does it go from here? give me a number and what reverses your opinion? what makes you more bullish. >> well, my basic five concerns

would have to change. my first concern, i think qe's going to fail on a cost benefit analysis. second concern is china and europe. china's the growth driver, the engine of the world's growth, it's sputtering, none of us know how badly it is. our friend mark grant wrote an e-mail this morning who said he believes that real gdp in china is 4% or less. he spent the last week on the ground there. the third is that the earnings outlook is deteriorating. i would note that third quarter 3.5% nominal u.s. gdp means there can be corporate top line sales and then we have the threat of the fiscal cliff. i'm not willing to pay high multiple for a 65-year high in corporate profit margins. the fourth thing is, camp rom y romney -- camp romney is in chaos and obama is now a clear leader. i'm not making a political statement, but most people think the republicans are market and business friendly. >> mike murphy -- >> the big problem i have is geopolitical risk, and the final thing is that this open-end

nature of qe-3, to me, will reduce the pressure on our leaders to fix the debt problem. >> doug, mike murphy has something for you, doug. >> hey, doug, looking at what the market's done here recently. it's had a very nice orderly up. all the key levels, backed and filled from the right level. so from the technical standpoint when we got above 1,445, i thought that gave a clear signal we're in an upturn and will continue that upturn toward 1,500. do you see anything from a technical standpoint where you say if we hold a key level you might look to revert and go back to the bullish camp? >> murph, the only thing i see technically, i see what you see, and that's why there's a unanimity of bullishness, but i would caution you that sentiment, which is -- which coincides with higher stock prices -- >> right. >> is also moving to an extreme

positive position. look at the put/call ratio, for example. >> thanks for your time as always. happy new year. we'll look forward to talking to you soon. >> thank you. same to you. >> we'll get a market flash from jackie. >> hey there, scott, well, rimm is moving on news it signed a patent licensing agreement with microsoft. it's going to give rimm access to microsoft's extended file allocation table. what that really means is that certain blackberry devices are now going to have the opportunity to download large files and also be able to seamlessly transfer data between their pcs and the devices. and also other mobile devices. so the question really is, though, can this or anything really save rimm at this point? today the stock is up 23 cents at 7.49. >> jackie poses the question, throws it right out there, can anything save rimm? that's all that matters at this point. >> there aren't a lot of us that track this one or trade it anymore, scott. clearly there's no real definite

direction to the option prices that we're seeing on either calls or puts that indicate people are betting on a lot of upside here, so i think this is just dead money. until something actually big happens to this company, i think it just continues to waste away. >> all right. on the way, the call of the day, why gold could reach 2,400 in the next 24 months. plus, apple at $700 a share. bargain or not? we'll get answers coming up. and he predicted the dot com and real estate bubbles, what economist robert shiller is worried about now. as qe-3 takes shape. we'll be right back.

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welcome back to the "halftime report," a market

flash on fedex. we saw that fiscal first quarter profits fell 1.1% this morning. but the earnings did top expectations. the stock is trading lower because the company cut the full-year earnings view and also issued third quarter guidance that was below analyst estimates. also trimming its global nusgdp forecast for next year, of course a bell weather for the global economy. that stock down at 87.37. >> thanks a lot. mike murphy, you added it at $87.25, i see on fedex. why aren't you worried? >> that's right, judge. well, we've been in this name for a long time. we like fedex and the entire business as a long-term holding for our fund. but we bought the stock on the first downgrade when they first lowered their guidance about two weeks ago, down just over 85. it rallied right back up that day and got up over $90 last week. and i think this pullback is just an opportunity to buy. fedex, i think what a lot of people aren't focusing on, they have a lot of cost cuts coming up that are really going to help

the bottom line. there's an analyst day coming up october 9th and 10th, and that should shed some light on the positives a company has and get the stock pushing back up toward the $100 level. >> they sound pretty down beat on the global economy. >> they do, but not really so much more down beat than they were a few weeks ago. you know, i think they're trying to talk a lot of people down, a lot of expectations down, but judge, they still are looking for 2.3% to 2.7% gdp growth. i think there are a lot of people who would take that right now. >> all right. richard fisher isn't one to mince words and he didn't hold back this morning on "squawk" when discussing the central bank's primary role. >> our job is not to provide to the traders. >> that's what people think. the one thing you can control the asset values in the stock market. >> but our job is to do what's in the long-term interest of the american people. now, the stock market provides what economists refer to as a wealth effect. >> right. >> but we're not interested in what happens immediately or the

next day and so on. >> i'll go right to guy adami and ask him about this. >> he's right. he's 100% right. the markets, the foundation of the market, should be earnings, revenue, earnings growth and revenue growth. the foundation of this market i fear is a blind faith in this federal reserve that's been very accommodative. i think he makes a great point. my point about the market going higher is, it doesn't give you this long to sell the highs, which means to me it's going higher, which at some point it does not end well. so earnings and earnings growth has kicked in which i don't see happening, i think it's a scary world. >> well, can the fed's easy money policy propel gold at 2,400 in two years? francisco blanche making a big bullish bet on gold this morning and joining us to defend that call. good to have you. >> hi, good morning. thanks for having me. >> $2,400 in two years for gold, this is all about central banks? >> well, look, i mean the fed's going to be printing about $40

billion a month. and buying mortgages with that. and they will also be purchasing, we believe, starting next year when operations come to an end. that is a lot of money. we think the fed could be adding close to $2 trillion to the balance sheet over the next couple of years. and that frankly, is a tremendous expansion of the monetary supply. >> francisco, i'm with you 100%, i think embedded within that is the fear that, you know, via currencies and wealth, to a certain extent, that's what we have here. i'm with you on this 4400, did you factor in at any point hedging points? gold hedging for their company's completely off the table. >> right. i mean, the miners have been really pulling back on their hedges for several years now. i think we can start to see some more interests in hedging at

high levels. but, frankly, to be honest, the core message here is that investors will continue to buy gold as long as the federal reserve is printing. and if you look at the last 18 months or so, gold prices really haven't done much. and i think the reason why is that we've had pretty much a flat line on the fed's balance sheet. we saw pretty tremendous increase during q-1 and qe-2, and now we've been sort of flat lined for the last 16, 18 months, and now the fed's going to start bringing its balance sheet into a much larger size again. so that's a lot more money, and that money has got to go somewhere, you know. >> where do the risks lie to this call? which is a big call. we're at 1,700 right now, and change. >> one is that the fed has to reverse policy because inflation picks up unexpectedly. we've seen indicators such as the five-year forward, which is a measure of interest rates, of

inflation expectations five years from now. we've seen that rising pretty quickly, it's around 3%, which is well above the average inflation of the past ten years. so that is a clear risk. the fed realizes the inflationary policy and has to start cutting it back. the other risk, frankly, is the fiscal cliff. any contraction in fiscal spending could be negative for gold prices going into the end of the year. and i think -- i think perhaps that's one of the markets most focused on. if we do get a major fiscal cliff, if we lose several percentage points of gdp going into january of next year, that could be negative for gold. any policy that is contractio y ry contractionary. i don't think republicans or democrats have taken the curtailment very seriously so far. so, you know, i think -- >> that's an understatement. >> it's a concern, but it's not -- i think it'll come to

pass. >> francisco, how about silver? you're talking about gold right now, i know you cover the precious metals itself, but we've watched a scorching run from levels, we've continued to see in the twice performing silver. will silver be on the same trajectory as gold? >> well, look, silver is a mirror image of gold in so many ways. it's playing gold on a levered basis. so in some ways, i think, yes, silver can pick up some of the steam. the one thing i will say, however, and i've spoke to a lot of silver producers in the past few weeks, i do think those silver producers will come in to sell silver if we get to a $38, $40 an ounce level. i think we'll find some resistance at $38 to $40, because again, those guys which also have a big industrial demand base for the metal will come to sell it. >> francisco, good to have you on the show. thanks for coming on with us. >> thanks for having me. >> are you buying gold on this

call? >> i've been selling puts most of the way up as it's been rallying. and the gld, maybe a month ago, scott, all of the upside december call buying, well, one of the questions i would have asked francisco was how likely is it that we see a super spike in gold? because now i'm seeing them backing in in november again, scott. buying the 180s, 190s, and 200 with the gld trading here at 171, that's a lot of upside in a very short term. that implies to me people believe there's that chance of that super spike based on his belief about the fiscal cliff. >> guy, here's a question facing many people today, do you buy if you believe that gold's going higher. do you buy the gld or gdx? >> i'm more on the gld side. if you want to be long the commodity, be long the actual commodity. there are gold mining stocks i like, aey is one of them, but you're going to get the biggest bang for your buck with owning

gold outright. >> i would say gld, as well, actually. the gdx i like in a conservative market, but given the fact potentially we could see gold do a spike. talking about how high they're going after the options right now. on a spike -- >> anybody want to take the other side of that and take the miners? >> no. >> cricket? >> no one? >> coming up -- i wish we had that sound. they should do that in the booth have that. they're a little slow -- >> there it is. >> there it is. >> there it is. >> coming up, apple shares up 75% over the past year, could there be a stock split ahead? we'll get answers. and the market's trading around four-year highs. turn to the man who called the housing bubble, "halftime" is back after this. how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers

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welcome back, as we make the turn on "halftime," the top three trades, f 5 networks, backiback ing away from networking. >> well, i love this one, scott. they came in, bought a couple calls very quickly, and we got a

piper jaffray upgrade as well as i think a topeka upgrade, that thing opened around $106.50 or thereabouts, sprang up to 111. that's a great time to be long calls and it's been a good run on f5 today. >> and speaking of good runs, take a look at the nyse. the biotech index rallying to historic intraday highs. guy, it's the third consecutive session that it's done that. i can't even stop looking at the ten-year change here, up 400%. >> yeah, and i think we're going to come back ten years from now if we're still together and probably saying the same thing. i think biotech, i think all roads lead to biotech, be it acquisitions, be it development. my favorite name in the space is cell gene, but i think the index still works. >> manchester united loss widening on the revenue and now trading below the ipo price. i know you're an american football guy, but you can't ignore this one. >> i am and i feel bad for our good friend simon baker who was a little bit more bullish than i

was on this. this was more of a novelty type investment. i'm not so sure, but, did you ever take a shot at this one? >> i did, pete. we traded this on the ipo, we were in and out in a day or two. one thing to keep an eye on, there's heavy, we're getting 50% being short this thing. on manchester united, if everybody's shorting this thing, you get a short squeeze, but fundamentally, i wouldn't be in the stock for a long-term. >> they made a big acquisition. van persie. >> oh, boy. >> right? >> almost as close. almost. >> another milestone for apple, crossing $700 a share. is it time for america's most valuable company to pay back its shareholders with a stock split? the top-performing technology fund, it's up 27% so far this year, apple among its top

holdings. zach, if your fund was down and apple was a top holding, i'd have to call you on the carpet here. but i think we know why your fund has been successful. do you see it continuing? >> absolutely. and by the way, if that were the case, i'd have real problems. no, absolutely, we're very excited about apple. and you ask about paying back shareholders, the best thing they can do they've done so far so well is continue to come out with great products. >> people have really started entertaining the idea in the last couple of months. does it happen? >> you know, i don't know that we have a real strong opinion here. it's just, you know, it's more shares at a lower price. we like the idea they're generating great products, making a lot of money doing it, and frankly, you know, they instituted a dividend, so they're starting to give money back to shareholders. and one thing they're able to do that most of their competitors can't do is they have so much cash they're able to strategically put that to work helping fund some of their suppliers. >> you really don't have an opinion on that one? i don't believe that.

>> okay. they have a stock split, it's not going to change our opinion. >> do they raise the dividend? >> i think they do. >> when? >> i think that's probably something that could happen, you know, in the next six months or less. clearly, you know, even though tech sector is growing slower, they're an exception to the rule, getting so big generating so much cash. even though they're effectively deploying it, they've got extra cash around which is a great opportunity to pay more back in the form of a dividend. >> do you see the upside of the china exposure for apple as far as the iphone 5? and the reason i bring that up, a lot of people have talked about subsidies and the rest of it and maybe it'll be too expensive. are you in that camp? or do you believe they're going to roll out something? particularly with china mobile? >> you know, i think they work it out, i think they work it out with china mobile likely before the end of the year. and frankly, you know, when you talk about too expensive, we've had this conversation for years. when they have a product that people want, you know, people find a way either, you know, through direct payment or through subsidies with the

carriers before the product. >> what's the bear case for apple, have you built in a bear case? is there one out there? >> well, you know, i think there's always a bear case. the bear case obviously is that, you know, the growth slows, there's more competition, can't continue to charge, you know, these kind of prices. clearly when you get this big and do this well this fast, the growth rate's going to slow. but these keep keep innovating, providing better products, better services and, you know, in some ways they're getting started. >> let's talk about, let's get away from apple for a moment. what kind of under the radar picks do you want to share with our viewers today? i know you have a few. >> well, one of the things we've been excited about is scarce resources, food and water, important stuff. and in our view, there are three ways to come at that. we're very excited about monsanto. the global expansion, you know, drought's taken its toll on

crops around the globe. you've seen prices up, monsanto's a great way to deal with things like that. we're very excited about water. you know, you think about a company, everybody thinks about filters and pumps to cool their spa, but they're about availability of water, reusing water, and clean water. and they're in the midst of merging with the slow control business which will be a home run for them. they're going to become a bigger, more global company as a result of that transaction. and probably, you know, the third one i'd highlight would be a company like darling. they're involved in the rendering business. there's nothing techie, nothing sexy about it. what excites us is they're six, nine months away from starting a big biodiesel facility called diamond green diesel where they're in partnership with valero energy down in louisiana. we think there's enormous

opportunity there. >> zach, great to have you on the show and also nice to shed light on some interesting stocks in your portfolio. thanks so much. >> thank you. >> all right, murph, which name on the list catches your eye? >> pent air. emerging with a division of tyko. it's one of our top holdings in our funds. and i think the combination is going to unlock a ton of synergies. i'd be long tyko after this split-up and i think there's a ton of value. >> who wants monsanto. >> it is a biotech stock and i think that you could potentially reach levels we last saw in 2008 assuming this market behaves the right way. monsanto to me is the most interesting one. why home builders may be on the verge of rallying. haven't they already? and he coined the term irrational exuberance. robert shiller's insight on the economic forces behind housing and much more when we come back. [ male announcer ] the 2013 smart comes with 8 airbags, a crash management system

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welcome back, will the fed's new easy money policy boost the housing market? goldman thinks so, sees housing activity rising 20% to 30% over the each of the next few years

and raising the price target on a number of stocks. these stocks have done incredibly well this year. the xhb, it's up what? 47%. >> and then you look at a name like pulte, i look at this call and say it seems like a top in the market. we're completely out -- >> how long could you have said that, though? these builders have gone up and up and up, you could have thought that before. why not more? >> i've been long the home builders literally from january 1, we got long the end of december of last year, we've been long the entire way. yesterday i said on "fast money" halftime, i've been out of the home builders completely, and right now you're looking for a small pullback, 3%, 5%, which is starting to get lennar and toll today are down more than a percent. then i'll be back in because long-term goldman laid out a great bullish report long-term housing. but i think a bit of a pullback and i'll reset myself and look

to ride the next wave up. >> sentiment was up today, this was kind of another one of those don't fight the fed trades, was it not? >> absolutely, we're talking about the home builders and you bring up a pulte, lennar, all of these have seen a lot of activity recently as a matter of fact, just a couple of days ago, yesterday, in fact, they were actually stretching out to january. so to murph's point, they were no longer in the absolute near-term. they were pushing out to january. maybe buying a little bit of time, willing to ride this wave right now in the housing as it maybe pulls back 2%, 3%, but then expecting to see much more out of some of these names. >> goldman may be bullish on a housing recovery, but not everyone agrees. robert shiller is an economic professor also co-founder of the s&p k. shiller price index. great to have you on "halftime" today. you don't think housing is on

the road to recovery? >> i think it might be. there are a lot of positive indicators. people tend to overreact to these. and if you look at the trend down since 2006, it's a pretty strong trend that we have to see reversed. you know maybe, you know, i might call it later this year that we've reached the bottom. but i'm not ready yet. >> so this is an important note here. you're considered one of the foremost experts on housing. robert shiller, as you sit here right now, you're not willing to say that housing is back. >> well, we've seen four attempts at recovery ever since the subprime crisis. but it's that seasonal. the seasonal has gotten stronger. it's been growing, so nobody knows why. and during the summer season, the question is, will this continue through the fall and winter? we'll wait and see. if that happens, then, you know, i believe in momentum in the housing market. and we are starting -- it looks like upward momentum, but i think it's too soon to call. >> what's the tell then? what do you need to see before

you're willing to say that we've turned the corner for real? >> at least a solid year of price increases. and maybe other indicators, as well. but the other -- it's starting to look better. i have to admit. so, you know, for someone who is thinking of buying a home now, you also have to factor in that mortgage rates are at record lows. so, you know, i'm not telling people not to buy a house. >> well, the fed certainly wants you to go out and buy a house. obviously qe-3, can they lower rates any more? they're already low. what impact will qe-3 really have on the mortgage market? >> well, we've seen a downturn in long-term mortgage markets ever since rates, ever since paul volcker. it's been 30 years of down trend. if this -- this could be at a record low, kind of hitting zero almost. real rates on mortgages are practically at zero now. so this could be a major turning

point. i just don't see calling it because i'd like to see more consistency in the evidence. you know, we have a weakness, the gdp numbers are down, you know, numbers, we see europe threatening, we see asia slowing. so it's just too mixed to call this as a major turning point. >> i read a paper that you recently wrote that the title being the narrative of global weakening. you asked the question if we're facing a long global slump or possibly even a depression. why don't you answer that now? >> yeah, i wasn't predicting a depression. but, you know, the great depression hung on longer than. we have the same interest, we have lower interest rates than the great depression. but we get into this economy where there doesn't seem to be a generic opportunity. we have massive unemployment. and it discourages people. we get a negative talk so people stop spending. that's a fundamental problem. and there's nobody in the government who can fix that. we can try, you know, it's good

that the fed is trying these things. but it's not a slam dunk that they can fix it. >> are we going into another recession? >> well, right now, we still have gdp growth. europe is in recession. but i'm optimistic that we are not going to do that badly right now, we could. but if there's a crisis in the middle east, we have an oil price spike and go straight into a recession. or if we don't fix the fiscal cliff, we go straight into a recession. so there are these uncertainties out there. it's certainly a possibility. >> can you give us your view on the stock market? we're at multi-year highs on all of the major averages. we have had this tremendous rally, the fed has now certainly, you know, obviously come in to play with how things could shape out from here. jeremy seagal was on this program yesterday, is looking for, what? dow 15,000? >> right. >> do you agree with that? >> you know, he has a 45% chance

of being right. not quite -- >> better than zero. >> you know, he's a smart guy, i respect him a lot. but i don't -- nobody knows what the stock market is going to do. it's notoriously difficult to forecast. and, you know, but my -- i do try to forecast -- i have this cyclically adjusted earnings price ratio i've been using for years to forecast stock prices and stock return. and it's kind of high now at 22. but not super high. so if my model is still predicting something like 4% real return on the stock market, which is looking good in today's market. so i think stocks are a reasonable thing to have in one's portfolio. but whether it'll reach 15,000, is anyone's guess. >> you don't agree with bill gross that the equity is dead or dying? >> no, i don't think so.

i think equity is the mainspring of our economy. and we should be proud of our -- our stock market. >> robert shiller, we're grateful for your time today, thanks so much for coming on halftime. >> my pleasure. >> all right. so what do you think about the housing recovery? are you rushing out to buy a house now as home prices start rising? tell us what you think, facebook.com/fastmoney. and still to come, why crude prices are sliding for the second day in a row. and later, whether the stock market has more room to run. we'll get insight from noted technician louise yamada. "halftime" is back in a deuce. at optionsxpress we create easy-to-use, powerful

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today on "power lunch," global headquarters. first on cnbc, the ceo of ford,

alan malally will talk the slow down in europe and how he sees his own future as head of that automaker. brand new figures released at the top of the hour, exclusive results of the latest nbc news polling. and playing chicken, higher prices means new headaches for scores of companies. we'll pluck it apart today on "power," now back to scott. >> thanks so much. see you at the top of the hour. let's hit another market flash. watching crude. >> that's right, scott, wti and brent are both lower today, we saw that drop yesterday with the wti price, that drop continuing seeing some selling pressure there, but brent lower on reports that the saudis are pumping more to keep that brent price down. really something to keep an eye on there, scott. >> thank you so much. is there a ceiling on oil right now knowing that the spr question hangs out there? >> i don't know whether or not i view it as a ceiling, but i certainly think we're stuck in

this range. basically call it $100, right? and all the different effects. we've seen a lot in the refinery space that's really caused head scratching recently from some o the analysts on the street. but i still look at that space as one of the better if you are looking at oil right now directly. >> murphy, where would you look in energy, oil or anything else? >> the movement was interesting yesterday. >> sure was. >> i don't know if we got confirmation on what exactly happened, whether it was a fat finger or not. but a lot of people i have talked to are coming up whether it is a conspiracy or not, i don't know. but people feeling that it was the government in there trying to suppress the price of oil. once you get something like that now released from the saudis today, the clear line up in oil may be breaking a little bit and may have to come in for a trade. >> guy, give me the view on oil? >> psx the place to go citi downgraded the stock yesterday but raised the target to 49. credit suisse the same thing, raised their price target to 53. in terms of oil, inevitably goes

higher this spr thing, to me, is very troubling but i understand why they talk about it but the place to play it, psx. >> next, we asked for them, now we will trade them, your tweets are coming up. [ male announcer ] when a major hospital wanted to provide better employee benefits while balancing the company's bottom line, their very first word was... [ to the tune of "lullaby and good night" ] ♪ af-lac ♪ aflac [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] ...forbusiness.com. [ yawning sound ]

welcome back. if you've got questions, our traders, we think, have the

evens. seema mody joins us with the tweets. >> a lot of questions. get to it, scott. charlie says what happens if the treasury market begins to implode with fed buying more bonds? guy, sending it to you. >> i think the fed's worst nightmare, that's what keeps them up and if it happens, potentially could happen why the gold market could go parabolic. if want ton trade for that scenario, get long gold. >> i'm loving the big blue, how about ibm in the stock up 13% year-to-date. pete? >> solid earnings expansion, this name continues to work. the fact they went from a hardware company to get into the software services, their acquisition strategy is outstanding. i think this name continues to go higher. >> the next one, susan say what is are your thoughts on stanley black and dperk, a global provider of hand and power tools, mike? >> stanley is a name that we are long. love the name here. one thing about stanley, a play weigh to play the housing recovery everyone knows but also, stanley is making a case for the new iphone. so, it is also derivative play

on apple, love the name, think it continues to go. >> seema, thanks. guys as well. hit the pops and drops, biggest midday movers. tenant health care popping 4%. >> a couple days in a row, don't want to fade this one, feels like it has room to the upside, $6.5. >> maritime, pete? >> i think downgrades but you look at the target, they kept the target $65 a share. i think is a buy. >> broad com popping 2%. murphy, amd's pain broad com's gain or what? >> it could be. i think more of another apple derivative, judge rbc upgraded the stock today, target 10 points higher from here, rbc is dead on with this one, broad com is a great way to play apple. >> big doc, coca-cola? >> like the upside movement today, scott. regardless of how the economy does this stock just insurance away, why it is one of warren buffett's biggest holdings. >> and a pop for kim i know your attention, not the face-painting hard rock band but the title of

carly rae jepsen's new album released today. the pop singer rocketed to fame by her hit "call me maybe" which spent eight weeks at the top of the charts and went quinn tunnel platinum. thankfully, not listening to it here. fellow canadian justin bieber makes an appearance on the album proving jeepson is trying hard not to be a one-hit wonder. final trades next and stay tuned for a first on cnbc interview when power lunch goes behind the wheel with ford mula. we will be right back.

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i think the mic was on. >> final trade, baby. >> all right, doc. >> mpel. >> murv? >> tyc, tyco. >> guy? >> blackstone, still works, baby. >> ibm, ibm. >> looking for more ways to trade like a monster? jon joinn